Do workers more susceptible to automation have more unstable careers?
Yes, but not by much. According to the research that I discuss in this year's edition of the Warsaw International Economic Meeting (WIEM), workers in those careers were more likely to experience longer and more frequent unemployment spells in Germany, and to have more job changes in Great Britain. The differences, while statistically significant, were much smaller than what the theory would led to expect. One possible explanation is that the view of technological progress offered by the dominant literature fails to account for the complexity of technological innovation. One example is that the literature assumes that all jobs in a given occupation benefit from a technological breakthrough that raises productivity. Relaxing this assumption, e.g. only jobs created after the technology was developed benefit from it, would lead to more nuance analysis.
The slides of the presentation are below.
Thank you to the organizers for a wonderful event. I hope we will participate next year as well.