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https://grape.org.pl/sites/default/files/user/MM_eng.pdf

Opublikowane | Published

  • The importance of family: a macroeconomic perspective | Pensions today - economic, managerial, and social issues (book chapter)

    Plenty of economic phenomena cannot be explained in the absence of family structure. For example, the immense changes in women's labor force participation are strongly affected by family structure: married women work less than single, and mothers work less than childless women (Greenwood et al. 2017). A significant share of these differences is a result of the family-specific design of tax and social security systems (Borella et al. 2019). Family structure is also a natural framework for studying intergenerational mobility and parent-child correlations. More and more macroeconomics papers reconcile the importance of a family and explicitly model decisions within the household. In this paper, we propose a systematic overview of this stream of literature.

    We are not the first ones to review family economics in the context of macroeconomics, e.g. Browning et al. (2014). Doepke and Tertilt (2016) provide an excellent summary of advances in family economics and its successes in explaining classic macroeconomics phenomena. We extend their study by focusing on family-dependent policy interventions, the joint aspect of taxation, and the impact of labor market structure on fertility. What is more, an outstanding guideline of family economics models by Greenwood et al. (2017) pointed out several remaining research questions – concerning childcare subsidies, fertility policies, taxation, and within-family insurance. We prove that many of them have already received a satisfactory empirical and theoretical answer.

    The definition of family differs substantially across macroeconomics literature. However, we can systematize these definitions using two dimensions: the household structure and decision process. We can distinguish two types of households: the first consists of the parent(s) and child(ren), the second consists of husband and wife. The latter fits analyzing gender inequality, unequal tax treatment, or family-dependent components of social security. The parent(s) and child(ren) family structure is the most common and helps explaining human capital accumulation, inequality, and fertility decisions. Both setups are employed to study different drivers of women's labor force participation.

    In terms of the decision-making process, we can distinguish unitary households and households based on game-theoretic bargaining models. The members of the unitary household maximize the so-called household utility function, which describes the joint interests of all household members under aggregated budget constraint. However, the formation, as well as the dissolution of a partnership, usually require decisions of the individuals involved. Thus, it always contains the possibility of conflict. Bargaining models better reflect this feature and describe household behavior as the cooperation of utility-maximizing individuals. Despite that, the unitary household is a typical framework, even in recent literature. Models with bargaining are mostly used to describe the formation and stability of marriage and recently to analyze fertility decisions.

    In the following part of the paper, we review both macroeconomics and family economics literature in the context of labor force participation, fertility choice, human capital accumulation, inequality and taxes, and social security. Depending on the policy in question, the literature proposes models with significantly different structures and features, e.g., types of heterogeneity, choice set, applied utility functions, and model timing. All of them contribute to the mechanism of the model and its fit to the data (Borella et al. 2018). We discuss below different model setups, with particular caution to policies' welfare effect. In this way, we provide a method guideline useful for future research.

    This chapter is a part of volume "Pensions today - economic, managerial, and social issues" edited by Filip Chybalski and Edyta Marcinkiewicz.

    Oliwia
    Komada
    Magda
    Malec
  • Fiscal and welfare effects of raised fertility: OLG model estimates | Population and Development Review

    In the context of the second demographic transition, many countries consider rising fertility through pro-family polices as a potentially viable solution to the fiscal pressure stemming from longevity. However, an increased number of births implies private and immediate costs, whereas the gains are not likely to surface until later and appear via internalizing the public benefits of younger and larger population. Hence, quantification of the net effects remains a challenge. We propose using an overlapping generations model with a rich family structure to quantify the effects of increased birth rates. We analyze the overall macroeconomic and welfare effects as well as the distribution of these effects across cohorts and study the sensitivity of the final effects to the assumed target value and path of increased fertility. We find that fiscal effects are positive but, even in the case of relatively large fertility increase, they are small. The sign and the size of both welfare and fiscal effects depend substantially on the patterns of increased fertility: if increased fertility occurs via lower childlessness, the fiscal effects are smaller and welfare effects are more likely to be negative than in the case of the intensive margin adjustments.

    Joanna
    Tyrowicz
    Krzysztof
    Makarski
    Magda
    Malec
  • Redystrybucja wewnątrzpokoleniowa w systemie emerytalnym | Gospodarka Narodowa

    Wykorzystanie wspólnych tablic dalszego oczekiwanego trwania życia przy obliczaniu wysokości emerytury w systemie zdefiniowanej składki skutkuje subsydiowaniem przeciętnie dłużej żyjących kobiet przez krócej żyjących mężczyzn. Celem artykułu jest oszacowanie skali tej redystrybucji. Przeprowadzono symulacje oparte na modelu nakładających się pokoleń z obowiązkowym repartycyjnym systemem zdefiniowanej składki oraz heterogeniczności w ramach kohorty. Uwględniono również wydłużanie się dalszego oczekiwanego trwania życia, zgodnie z projekcjami demograficznymi. Zastosowanie wspólnych tablic życia skutkuje redystrybucją w kierunku kobiet na poziomie ok. 0,5-0,7%, wyrażoną za pomocą ekwiwalentu konsumpcji jako procent konsumpcji mężczyzn w cyklu życia. Taka skala redystrybucji w ramach systemu emerytalnego w bardzo niewielkim stopniu rekompensuje kobietom dyskryminację na rynku pracy. 

    Magda
    Malec


Systemy emerytalne

  • Many people think that they are cautious and taking proper care of their future. But the truth is that we do not. The scope of old-age poverty in six Central European countries is simply scary.

  • Ustawodawca (nieumyślnie) skonstruował system emerytalny tak, że jest on stale niezbilansowany. To znaczy, że w budżecie Zakładu Ubezpieczeń Społecznych jest i będzie zawsze za mało pieniędzy na wypłaty należnych emerytur. Brakujące środki musi finansować budżet państwa. Co jest problemem w ustawie o emeryturach i rentach wypłacanych z FUS, na podstawie której działa system emerytalny?

  • Polska się zestarzeje, zanim zdąży się wzbogacić – przed takim wyzwaniem właśnie stajemy. Co to znaczy ilościowo?

  • Około 70% roczników urodzonych na przełomie lat 1970-tych i 1980-tych otrzyma świadczenie na poziomie emerytury minimalnej. Sfinansowanie tych (niskich!) emerytur i ich waloryzacja będzie wymagało np. podniesienia VAT o  ok. 2pp.

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