We analyze the effects of increasing the retirement age in two economies with overlapping generations and within cohort ex ante heterogeneity. The first economy has a defined benefit system and the second economy is in transition from a defined benefit to a defined contribution. We find that if increase in the retirement age is phased in a way that allows agents to adjust, welfare is not reduced and welfare effects have a similar magnitude and between cohort distribution in both types of the pension systems.
Marcin jest ekonomistą w Instytucie Ekonomicznym Narodowego Banku Polskiego i pracuje na Wydziale Nauk Ekonomicznych Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego. Do GRAPE dołączył w 2013 roku, by pracować nad projektami emerytalnymi.
Opublikowane | Published
Reforming retirement age in DB and DC pension systems in an aging OLG economy with heterogenous agents (Przeczytaj streszczenie | Read abstract)
Decreasing Fertility vs Increasing Longevity: Raising the Retirement Age in the Context of Ageing Processes (Przeczytaj streszczenie | Read abstract)
Given the decreasing fertility and increasing longevity, in many countries the policy debate emphasizes the role of either raising the minimum eligible retirement age (MERA) or raising fertility to avoid adverse changes in the population structure. In this paper we evaluate the welfare and macroeconomic effects of increasing the retirement age for various demographic scenarios under three major pension systems (defined benefit, notionally defined contribution and funded defined contribution). We compare populations with decreasing fertility, increasing longevity and one subject to both of these changes, and show that the welfare effects of raising MERA stem mainly from longevity. We show that – for increasing longevity – raising the retirement age is universally welfare enhancing for all living and future cohorts, regardless of the pension system and fertility. Finally, we show scope for further welfare gains if productivity is relatively high at old ages.
Small assumptions (can) have a large bearing: evaluating pension system reforms with OLG models (Przeczytaj streszczenie | Read abstract)
The objective of this paper is to inquire the consequences of some simplifying assumptions typically made in the overlapping generations (OLG) models of pension systems and pension system reforms. This literature is largely driven by policy motivations. Consequently, the majority of the papers is extremely detailed in the dimension under scrutiny. On the other hand, complexity of general equilibrium OLG modeling necessitates some simplifications in the model. We run a series of experiments in which the same reform in the same economy is modeled with six different sets of assumptions concerning the shape of the utility function, time inconsistency, bequests? redistribution, labor supply decisions and internalizing the linkage between social security contributions and benefits in these decisions as well as public spending. We find that these assumptions significantly affect both the size and the sign of the macroeconomic and welfare measures of policy effects with the order of magnitude comparable to the reform itself.
W toku | Work in progress
Business cycles, innovation and growth: welfare analysis (Przeczytaj streszczenie | Read abstract)
Endogenous growth literature treats deliberate R&D effort as the main engine of long-run technology growth. It has been already recognized that R&D expenditures are procyclical. This paper builds a microfounded model that generates procyclical aggregate R&D investment as a result of optimizing behavior by heterogeneous monopolistically competitive firms.
I find that business cycle fluctuations indeed affect the aggregate endogenous growth rate of the economy so that transitory productivity shocks leave lasting level effects on the economy’s Balanced Growth Path. This result stems from both procyclical R&D expenditures of the incumbents and procyclical firm entry rates, and is in line with the empirical evidence on the negative impact of “missing generations” of firms on macroeconomic variables.
This mechanism generates economically significant hysteresis effects, increasing the welfare cost of business cycles by two orders of magnitude relative to the one typically found by the business cycles literature. High welfare costs of business cycles and potential to affect endogenous growth create ample space for welfare improving policy interventions. The paper evaluates the effects of several countercyclical subsidy schemes and finds some of them welfare improving.
Innovation and endogenous growth over business cycle with frictional labor markets (Przeczytaj streszczenie | Read abstract)
This paper proposes a microfounded model featuring frictional labor markets that generates procyclical R&D expenditures as a result of optimizing behavior by heterogeneous monopolistically competitive firms. This allows to show that business cycle fluctuations affect the aggregate endogenous growth rate of the economy. Consequently, transitory shocks leave lasting level effects.
This mechanism is responsible for economically significant hysteresis effects that increase the welfare cost of business cycles by two orders of magnitude relative to the exogenous growth model. I show that this has serious policy implications and creates ample space for policy intervention. I find that several static and countercyclical subsidy schemes are welfare improving.
Long shadows of financial shocks: an endogenous growth perspective (Przeczytaj streszczenie | Read abstract)
The Great Recession has resulted in a seemingly permanent level shift in many macroeconomic variables. This paper presents a microfounded general equilibrium model featuring frictional labor markets and financial frictions that generates procyclical R&D expenditures and replicates business cycle features of establishment dynamics. This allows demonstrating the channels through which productivity and financial shocks influence the aggregate endogenous growth rate of the economy, creating level shifts in its balanced growth path.
I find that financial shocks are an important driver of the aggregate fluctuations and their influence is especially pronounced for establishment entry. Since the growth rate of the economy can in principle be affected by policy measures, I examine the macroeconomic and welfare effects of applying several subsidy schemes.
This data summarizes the evolution of consumption and wealth inequality over the forthcoming decades of longevity. In a defined contribution system, with extending life span on retirement, pension benefits are bound to decline (at least, if the retirement age is not raised). These declining pension benefits will encourage agents to increase voluntary savings in other to smooth consumption over lifetime. This is likely to affect wealth and consumption inequality, despite unchanged institutional arrangement and stable productivity heterogeneity within cohorts.