Pan J. Adamski w programie "Blajer mówi biznes" w TVN CNBC powiedział, że odsezonowywanie danych z rejestrów urzędów pracy jest zabawą. Podzielamy ten pogląd :), życząc MPiPS wiele zabawy :). Pan Adamski powiedział także, że dane z Eurostat są bardziej informatywne. Eurostat uspójnia pomiędzy krajami definicję osoby bezrobotnej (np. ze względu na wliczanie do zasobu siły roboczej żołnierzy albo studentów zamieszkujących akademiki, lecz dorabiających gdzieś po zajęciach). Żadnych danych miesięcznych Eurostat nie ma, bo i nie ma skąd wziąć - poza rejestrami. Jedyne alternatywne źródło danych o rynku pracy - badania aktywności ekonomicznej ludności - dostępne są w większości krajów UE z częstotliwością kwartalną.

Tak czy inaczej, rzućmy na nie okiem - sprawdźmy, czy rzeczywiście cokolwiek rozjaśniają. Uwaga: dane publikowane przez Eurostat są już odsezonowane, tj. Eurostat publikuje wielkość obciążoną pewnym błędem statystycznym wynikającym z samej procedury odsezonowania. Dla danych z rejestrów urzędów pracy dla Polski takie pasmo błędu jest niemałe - np. jeśli stopa bezrobocia różni się pomiędzy miesiącami o mniej niz 0.1pp, to tak naprawdę niczego nie można powiedzieć.

To jak wyglądają te dane?

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Dwa wnioski: stopy się różnią (co do poziomu) i nie różnią (co do tendencji). Naturalnie, Eurostat nie ma jeszcze danych za sierpień 2013, będzie je miał pod koniec miesiąca, gdy urzędy statystyczne krajów UE przekażą do Brukseli... stopy bezrobocia rejestrowanego.

Czy różnica pomiędzy poziomem stopy bezrobocia jest zmienna w czasie? Nie wydaje się - choć są pewne wahania, generalnie ostatnie 5 lat daje różnice na poziomie ok 2.6-3pp pomiędzy danymi Eurostat i polskimi danymi z rejestrów urzędów pracy. To tyle przeciętnie taka sama różnica jak pomiędzy stopą bezrobocia na podstawie BAEL i na podstawie danych z rejestrów.

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Dlaczego te stopy się różnią? To już temat na osobny wpis.