Drugi już artykuł w projekcie został przyjęty do publikacji. „Unprivatizing the Pension System: The Case of Poland” ukazał się w czasopiśmie Applied Economics.

Jan Hagemejer, Krzysztof Makarski, Joanna Tyrowicz
Unprivatizing the Pension System: The Case of Poland

In many countries the fiscal tension associated with the global financial crisis brings about the discussion about unprivatizing the social security system. This paper employs an OLG model to assess ex ante the effects of such changes to the pension reform in Poland from 1999 as implemented in 2011 and proposed in 2013. We simulate the behavior of the economy without the implemented/proposed changes and compare it to a status quo defined by the reform from 1999. We find that the changes implemented in 2011 and all of the proposed reform scenarios from 2013 are detrimental to welfare. The effects on capital and output are small and depend on the selected fiscal closure. Implied effective replacement rates are lower. These findings are robust to time inconsistency. The shortsightedness of the governments imposes welfare costs.