Zmiany zatrudnienia | Reallocating labor

Info: 

This project aims to analyse the intersectoral reallocation of workers, accounting for both industrial and ownership composition. We will use the quasi panel nature of Polish Labour Force Survey (LFS) to inquire the nature of these flows accounting for both direct job-to-job flows and indirect employment-unemployment-employment flows. We will analyse the role of the individual characteristics in determining these flows over the entire available period of 1995-2014. Finally, we will propose a decomposition allowing to disentangle cyclical and trend components. This way, we will try account for business cycle as opposed to such sustained trends as the transition and skill-biased technological change induced by globalisation. Thus, the project will allow to verify a hypothesis that:

together with the progress of transition the role of the business cycle fluctuations became dominant in determining labour market flows in Poland.

Budget: 

Źródło finansowania | Financing : Narodowe Centrum Nauki, SONATA BIS

Projekt realizowany | Timeline : 03/2013 – 03/2016

Budżet łączny | Total budget: 387 260 zł

  • wynagrodzenia dla podstawowych wykonawców | compensation to researchers: 110 400 zł
  • wynagrodzenia dla asystentów badawczych | compensation to research assistants: 95 200 zł
  • komputery i oprogramowanie (m.in. licencje) | hardware and software: 45 500 zł
  • konferencje i inne wyjazdy | conference travels: 45 000 zł
  • materiały + zakup danych | usables + purchasing data: 16 200 zł + 18 000 zł
  • koszty pośrednie dla Wydziału Nauk Ekonomicznych | overheads for the Faculty of Economics: 28 480 zł
  • koszy pośrednie dla Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego | overheads for the University of Warsaw: 28 480 zł
Purpose: 

Objectives | Cel badania

In English: This project aims to analyse the intersectoral reallocation of workers, accounting for both industrial and ownership composition. We will use the quasi panel nature of Polish Labour Force Survey (LFS) to inquire the nature of these flows accounting for both direct job-to-job flows and indirect employment-unemployment-employment flows.

Po polsku: Celem projektu jest weryfikacja hipotezy, iż dominująca rola czynników cyklicznych w determinacji skali i kierunku realokacji pracowników świadczy o opuszczeniu fazy transformacji i osiągnięciu przez polski rynek pracy fazy dojrzałości. Pierwszą fazę transformacji powinna charakteryzować realokacja systemowa, lecz wraz z jej postępem, przesunięcia pracowników pomiędzy sektorami powinny odzwierciedlać cykliczność procesów gospodarczych. Określenie empiryczne okresu, po którym dane potwierdzają hipotezę o dominującej roli czynników cyklicznych pozwoliłoby na pełniejsze zrozumienie procesów na rynku pracy w Polsce, szczególnie w kontekście jego zachowania w okresie ostatniego spowolnienia gospodarczego.
 


Method | Metodyka

In English: Using the entirety of the available LFS data and employing microeconometric techniques we will analyse intersectoral reallocation of workers in order to:

  • inquire the role of inflows and outflows for the observed behaviour of the employment rates and structure;
  • analyse the influence of these factors on individual wage patterns as well as their dispersion;
  • analyse the individual determinants favouring reallocation and the change of these factors across the phases of the business cycle.

 

Po polsku: W oparciu o dane jednostkowe za lata 1995-2014 (powyższy zakres został wytyczony przez dostępność danych BAEL – dane wcześniejsze nie mają wystarczającej jakości) i z wykorzystaniem technik mikroekonometrycznych przeprowadzona zostanie analiza determinant realokacji sektorowej by zbadać:

  • znaczenie napływów/odpływów w obserwowanych zmianach sektorowej struktury zatrudnienia w Polsce;
  • wpływ powyższych przepływów na indywidualne wynagrodzenia i ich dyspersję;
  • indywidualne determinanty sprzyjające realokacji oraz ich zmiany w cyklu koniunkturalnym.

 


Intended contribution | Planowane efekty

In English: Upon completion of the project, we will produce a deliverable report which will contain all our results. In addition we plan to produce three publishable research papers (we intend to submit them to international peer-reviewed journals). This includes: (i) analysis of the size of intersectoral flows; (ii) analysis of the determinants of intersectoral flows and (iii) meta-analysis of literature.

Po polsku: Po zakończeniu projektu zostanie przygotowany raport zawierający wszystkie wyniki. Dodatkowo planujemy trzy publikacje naukowe: (i) badanie skali przepływów międzysektorowych; (ii) badanie determinant przepływów sektorowych i (iii) meta-analizę literatury.

  • In this project, we created a large set of wage inequality indicators. We used a large collection of individual level data. We acquired over 1600 individual level data for 44 countries over three decades. We provide several measures of wage inequality (Gini Index, mean log deviation, log of 90/10 percentiles, log of 90/50 percentiles, log of 50/10 percentiles, log of 75/25 percentiles) for each country and year.

Opublikowane | Published

  • Labor reallocation and demographics | Journal of Comparative Economics

    We explore data from all transition economies over nearly two decades, providing insights on the mechanisms behind labor force reallocation. We show that worker flows between jobs in different industries are rare relative to the demographic flows of youth entry and elderly exit. The same applies to the flows between state-owned enterprises and private firms. In fact, evidence suggest that changes in the demand for labor were accommodated mostly through demographic flows, with a smaller role left for job transitions. We also show that the speed of changing the ownership structure in the economy has driven exits to retirement, in particular the early exits.

    This study uses data from LiTS, see the paper tab for replication files as well as the additional controls.

    Joanna
    Tyrowicz
    Lucas
    van der Velde
  • Wage inequality and structural change | Social Indicators Research

    Abstract

    Income inequality in the context of large structural change has received a lot of attention in the literature, but most studies relied on household post-transfer inequality measures. This study utilizes a novel and fairly comprehensive collection of micro data sets from between 1980’s and 2010 for both advanced market economies and economies undergoing transition from central planning to market based system. We show that wage inequality was initially lower in transition economies and immediately upon the change of the economic system surpassed the levels observed in advanced economies. We find a very weak link between structural change and wages in both advanced and post-transition economies, despite the predictions from skill-biased technological change literature. The decomposition of changes in wage inequality into a part attributable to changes in characteristics (mainly education) and a part attributable to changes in rewards does not yield any leading factors.

    Data

    This paper uses a large collection of individual level data, described in detail in the paper. We acquired over 1600 individual level data for 44 countries over three decades. Contact us if you would want to utilize this vast collection of data. The inequality measures are shared here.

    Joanna
    Tyrowicz
    Magdalena
    Smyk-Szymańska
  • Czynniki wpływające na czas poszukiwania pierwszego zatrudnienia | Gospodarka Narodowa

    This article aims to investigate factors that influence the time needed for young people to find their first job. Using data from the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC), a Cox proportional hazard model was estimated for all respondents and for five subgroups of respondents coming from countries with similar labor markets. The results for all the respondents show that factors influencing the time needed for young people to find their first job are in line with the literature. In the case of the five subgroups, there are significant differences between countries in terms of these factors. It seems that, in order to shorten the time needed for young people to find their first job, measures from labor markets with similar characteristics, where similar factors influence the process of people searching for work, should be applied. However, one should bear in mind that this process of “copying” may not be completely successful.

    Stanisław
    Cichocki
    Joanna
    Tyrowicz
  • Modelling labour reallocation during the Polish transition: a search-and-matching approach | Bank i Kredyt

    An important feature of the reallocation process that took place in Eastern European and former Soviet Union countries was the decline in public sector employment due to the collapse of state-owned enterprises combined with an increase in private sector employment as new private firms emerged and old public companies were privatized. We propose a theoretical, parsimonious model which combines this feature with the standard search and matching model introduced by Diamond, Mortensen and Pissarides. Using numerical simulation we show that faster transition (associated with faster restructuring of state-owned enterprises into more productive private firms) leads to a quicker convergence to the post-transitional equilibrium characterized by high GDP and high employment in the private sector. However, this comes at the cost of negative output growth and higher unemployment in the short run.

    Stanisław
    Cichocki
  • Cyclical Trend of Labor Reallocation in Poland: Transition and Structural Change | Eastern European Economics

    Two main features of the reallocation process that took place in Eastern European and Former Soviet Union countries should be distinguished. The first feature was the decline in public sector employment as a result of the collapse of state-owned enterprises, linked with an increase in private sector employment as new private firms emerged and old public companies were privatized. The second feature was, and still is, the reallocation of labor from manufacturing to the service sector. Data from the Polish Labor Force Survey for the period 1995–2015 were used to construct measures of worker flows, gross and net, and their cyclical properties were used as a way to test the predictions of structural change and transition theories. It was found that labor market adjustments tend to amplify in upturns of the business cycle, while worker flows contribute only a fraction to the changing structure of employment. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.

    Stanisław
    Cichocki
    Joanna
    Tyrowicz
    Lucas
    van der Velde
  • Effects of Labor Reallocation on Productivity and Inequality - Insights from Studies on Transition | Journal of Economic Surveys

    From a theoretical perspective, the link between the speed and scope of rapid labor reallocation and productivity growth or income inequality is ambiguous. Do reallocations with more flows tend to produce higher productivity growth? Does such a link appear at the expense of higher income inequality? We explore the rich evidence from earlier studies on worker flows in the period of massive and rapid labor reallocation, that is, the economic transition from a centrally planned to a market-oriented economy in CEE. We have collected over 450 estimates of job flows from the literature and used these inputs to estimate the short-run and long-run relationship between labor market flows, labor productivity, and income inequality. We apply the tools typical for a meta-analysis to verify the empirical regularities between labor flows and productivity growth as well as income inequality. Our findings suggest only weak and short-term links with productivity, driven predominantly by business cycles. However, data reveal a strong pattern for income inequality in the short run—more churning during reallocation is associated with a level effect toward increased Gini indices.

    Joanna
    Tyrowicz
    Lucas
    van der Velde
    Jan
    Svejnar